US Open week

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Scott Rushing
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US Open week

Where is this year going..it's already US Open time.  How fast will the greens at Oakmont be this week?  Probaby crazy stupid.  

Below is a subset of vegas Odds for winning at Oakmont.   Was surprising to see DJ putt well down the stretch yesterday at the St Jude, but I just think that's his weakness and teh USGA will feast on that this weekend.  I'm betting on Day or Spieth .  I'd like to see Phil pull it off too. 

 

Jason Day 13/2
Rory McIlroy 8/1
Jordan Spieth 17/2
Dustin Johnson 16/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
Adam Scott 22/1
Bubba Watson 28/1
Danny Willett 30/1
Henrik Stenson 30/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Phil Mickelson 35/1
Branden Grace 40/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Paul Casey 50/1
Sergio Garcia 50/1
Jim Furyk 60/1
Jimmy Walker 60/1
Matt Kuchar 60/1
Charl Schwartzel 65/1
Justin Thomas 65/1
Martin Kaymer 65/1
Zach Johnson 65/1
J.B. Holmes 70/1
Kevin Kisner 75/1
Webb Simpson 75/1
Billy Horschel 80/1
Graeme McDowell 80/1
Lee Westwood 80/1
Marc Leishman 80/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 80/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Byeong Hun An 100/1
Ian Poulter 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
Bernd Wiesberger 125/1
Brendon Todd 125/1
Chris Kirk 125/1
Danny Lee 125/1
David Lingmerth 125/1
Hunter Mahan 125/1
Kevin Na 125/1
Luke Donald 125/1
Ryan Palmer 125/1
Victor Dubuisson 125/1
Charley Hoffman 140/1
Gary Woodland 140/1
Harris English 140/1
Francesco Molinari 150/1
Graham Delaet 150/1
Jamie Donaldson 150/1
John Senden 150/1
Keegan Bradley 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Russell Henley 150/1
Ryan Moore 150/1
Scott Rushing
Scott Rushing's picture
So in looking at the board

So in looking at the board for value -- these aren't necessarily my official picks -- I want players that play well on difficult courses, avoid the big number that Oakmont is waiting to deal to you, have a good history in Opens and are coming in playing quality golf. 

Best values

Justin Rose (20/1): The 2013 U.S. Open champion has always fared well at very difficult courses. He won the Open at Merion and has PGA Tour wins at Congressional, Muirfield Village and Doral. Those are beastly courses. He hasn't played since The Players, but in 11 events this season he has eight top 25s and five top 10s. Rose finished T10 at Oakmont in 2007 and has four top 10 finishes in the last five majors. I like Rose's value best among the top 10 guys on the board here. 

Brandt Snedeker (50/1): Snedeker was as hot as anyone on Tour to start 2016, but cooled off in the early spring. A T17 last week may indicate his game is rounding into form and he's already got a T10 in the first major of the year at the Masters. The Open has always fit Snedeker's game as he has four top 10 finishes and three other top 25s (including the '07 US Open at Oakmont) since 2007. 

Charl Schwartzel (60/1): Schwartzel is in solid form of late, with a T25 and T11 finish in his last two starts, and he's been a steady U.S. Open performer since 2010. Even though he's a Masters champion, the Open has consistently been the major where he performs the best. He's got four top 25s (2 top 10s) in the last six Opens, including a seventh place finish last year. 

Jason Dufner (100/1): In the last four U.S. Opens, Dufner has gone T4, T4, MC and T18. That's quite the record on USGA-prepped courses in that time. Dufner is come on pretty well of late, with a T24 at the Byron Nelson and a T6 at Colonial in the last month. He's got the steady game and temperment to handle the rigors of Oakmont, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the mix on Sunday. 

Worst values

Rory McIlroy (7/1): This may come as a surprise. Rory won the Irish Open recently and has been a top 10 machine this season -- five top 10s in his last seven PGA Tour starts -- but I still have some concerns about him being the co-favorite with Jason Day from a value perspective.

Yes, he's been getting top 10s, but many of those have been backdoor top 10s, where he's not in contention on Sunday and posts a low number to move up the leaderboard into a quality finish. He's also scrambling desperately to figure out his putting. Even in his win in Ireland, he had 127 putts over four days, and quickly ditched the cross-handed grip he'd been trying out to go back to the conventional style.

Rory is a contender for sure, but I'm not sure his putting is in good enough form for the speedy greens at Oakmont. When he won in 2011 at Congressional -- in one of the most impressive displays ever at a U.S. Open -- he was doing everything well. We haven't seen that same Rory this year, and I don't expect that Rory to show up at Oakmont. I think 7/1 and co-favorite with Day and Jordan Spieth is just too high to feel like you're getting good value for your money. 

Henrik Stenson (25/1): I understand that his world ranking dictates that he's among the favorites, but Stenson's form right now and performance in recent majors has me wary of him in this spot. He hasn't finished in the top 10 at a major since the 2014 PGA and has missed the cut in his last two PGA Tour starts. He made a charge for a T4 at his home event in Sweden on the European Tour last week, but his putting this year has not been good.

He's 151st on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting and with the green speeds they'll be facing at Oakmont, that's just not going to cut it. I think 25/1 is too high for him the way he's been playing recently. 

Bubba Watson (30/1): I'm not sure what's going on with Bubba right now, but he's in a funk. Watson was as hot as can be in late February and early March, winning at the Northern Trust and then finishing second at Doral, but since then he's yet to record a top 25 finish in four events.

Watson has never fared well at the U.S. Open, missing the cut three of the last four years. The punishing rough of the Open isn't something Watson deals with well, and, even though his lone top 10 of his career at a U.S. Open was in 2007 at Oakmont, I don't expect him to be in contention this year with the way he's playing. 

Justin Thomas (80/1): Thomas is one of my favorite golfers on the Tour, but I just think Oakmont is a bad setup for his game the way he's playing this year. Thomas can bomb it (26th in driving distance) but he's really struggled with his accuracy off the tee (163rd on Tour at 55.9 percent). At Oakmont, missing nearly 50 percent of the fairways is a recipe for disaster. Thomas is a rising star and wil contend for a major at some point soon, just not this US Open. 

Tiger Woods (100/1): No. Stop. Even if Tiger shows up to play (let's hope he doesn't) I don't want to imagine what he'd shoot at Oakmont having not played tournament golf this year. 

Golf is a game that can only be played...

GolfGearReview.com Administrator

cac
cac's picture
A good in depth read scott.

A good in depth read scott. Heres my tips and choices. I will have a couple of quid on each for a win and a top 6. Big phil 25-1 always somewhere in the mix on sundays. putter can be very hot and NEEDS the US  for his grand slam. Adam Scott again normally up on the leader board when it counts. His putting hasnt suffered with the broomstick issue. Is VERY good value at 33-1. Kooch. Very good for lately and can plod along Par Par Par etc 35-1 a good bet. Last is Dustbin Johnson 12-1. I call him that cos thats where my betting slips usually end up in the Dustbin. Great talent and this couse is huge. If his putting is 8/10 he can win it. Couple of wild card bets. The goose for 1st round leader. I think the course set up may be short for Day 1 and gooses putting can take advantage on day 1 125-1. Also I think Angel cabrerra may have a good day 1 at 250-1 must be worth a quid. CAC 

cac handed Geordie.

Scott Rushing
Scott Rushing's picture
I wish I wsa at a place I

I wish I wsa at a place I could place a wager...I placed some wagers while iN Vegas for the Masters, but I didn't go this far out.

Dustin's chances I think come down to the putter for sure.   Unless he has a 3-4 stroke lead coming down the stretch, he'll have last year in his memory. So for him, the best bet is to come out, have the driver working, hit fairways and greens and try to stay around Par and have a lead before Sunday..And then hold on!!!

I tend to wager on the 20/1-50/1 gusy because I don't usually put enough on say Jason Day to make the payout worth the risk.  WOuld love to see Phil do it this year.  Brooks Koepka is playing well too.  Oh well, fun times ahead...

Golf is a game that can only be played...

GolfGearReview.com Administrator

DON
I think the winner of this

I think the winner of this years U.S. OPEN might just be OAKMONT. If they set it up to normal Open standards and they do NOT water the greens as usual, it will be super hard to score low. I do not mine Fast greens at all, what I HATE is super hard greens where the ball just bounces off and good approach shots end up off the back of the greens. And if the rough is deep and thick, it will be the course that comes out on top.

Don

Putting is easy if you have the Right Putter.